Project Overview
The AFFOR Project – National Afforestation Model – develops an integrated analytical framework to evaluate the economic, environmental, and social impacts of converting Irish agricultural land to forestry. Funded by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under its 2021–2030 Research Programme, the project supports national and EU-level climate and biodiversity goals, including Ireland's Climate Action Plan and the EU Green Deal.
By combining farm-level bioeconomic models with carbon and biodiversity metrics, the project assesses the trade-offs and synergies of afforestation across soil types, farm systems, and tree species. The model simulates outcomes under multiple scenarios, accounting for carbon sequestration, biodiversity shifts, and economic returns for both private landowners and society.
The AFFOR model links detailed farm data (from the Teagasc National Farm Survey) with forest growth models, Delphi-elicited biodiversity values, and a novel value-chain Input-Output module. These tools allow policymakers to explore how afforestation incentives, species selection, and land characteristics influence net carbon, biodiversity, income, and rural employment across Ireland.
Objectives
The main objective of AFFOR is to create a single, scalable modelling framework that integrates farm-level decisions, forest carbon dynamics, biodiversity change, and national policy outcomes. It addresses:
- Modelling economic trade-offs between forestry and agriculture at farm and national scale
- Capturing biodiversity changes across land use transitions using expert surveys
- Estimating carbon sequestration and displacement using life-cycle approaches
- Developing open-source tools and training materials for stakeholders
- Supporting policy evaluation under Food Vision 2030, Climate Action Plan, and EU Green Deal
Carbon and Climate Impact
Afforestation is a key pathway for Ireland to meet its climate goals. The AFFOR model shows that new forests capture carbon in trees, soils, and harvested wood products—and also reduce emissions by displacing livestock activity (the “double carbon dividend”).
Livewood and HWP Carbon Sequestration (Unthinned Sitka Spruce, YC20)
Differential carbon sequestration over 200 years in above- and below-ground livewood, harvested wood products, and litter & mortality.
Forest Biodiversity Explorer
Explore how biodiversity varies by species, soil, stage and management. Broadleaves (Birch, Oak) tend to score higher than Sitka spruce; scores are lowest at canopy closure and improve after thinning. Soils strongly moderate outcomes.
Choose a species, soil, stage and management to view an indicative biodiversity level and explanation.
- Very Low
- Low
- Moderate
- High
- Very High
Agricultural → Forest: Biodiversity Change (First 0–8 Years)
Explore how biodiversity is expected to change when grassland is planted with Sitka spruce, Birch, or Oak. Select a soil type to view % change estimates by farm system and grazing intensity.
| Farm system & grazing | Sitka spruce | Birch | Oak |
|---|
Values shown are derived from AFFOR’s expert survey. Final medians will replace these values in the final model.
Project Outputs
The AFFOR model provides new insights into the economics, climate impacts, and biodiversity outcomes of afforestation in Ireland, supporting evidence-based policy for sustainable land use.
Economic Viability
Forestry is privately profitable on approximately one-third of Irish farms, based on timber revenues and afforestation subsidies. When the climate value of carbon is included, the share of farms with positive social returns rises from about 47% at €32 per tCO₂ to nearly 97% at €100 per tCO₂, highlighting the transformative impact of carbon pricing on afforestation decisions.
Carbon & Climate
Each hectare of unthinned Sitka spruce offsets an average of ~3.97 livestock units (LU), with a range of ~2.34–4.13 LU depending on soil type and conditions. Afforestation delivers a “double carbon dividend” by both sequestering carbon in live biomass, soils, and harvested wood products and avoiding agricultural emissions (CH₄ and N₂O) by displacing livestock production. This dual benefit significantly enhances forestry’s role in Ireland’s national climate mitigation strategy.
Biodiversity
Native broadleaf species such as birch and oak generally support higher levels of biodiversity — including flora, invertebrates, and vertebrates — compared with Sitka spruce, particularly over the longer term. Biodiversity scores tend to be lowest at the canopy-closure stage, when structural complexity is limited, but increase significantly following thinning, which enhances light penetration, understorey growth, and habitat diversity. Soil type further moderates outcomes, with brown earths generally associated with higher biodiversity potential than peat soils.
Policy Relevance
The AFFOR model integrates farm-level economic analysis, carbon accounting, and biodiversity assessment into a single evidence-based decision-support framework. It provides insights into where and under what conditions afforestation is most beneficial, guiding the design and targeting of policy incentives. AFFOR directly informs the implementation of Ireland’s Climate Action Plan, the EU Green Deal, and the EU Forest Strategy, supporting policies that maximise afforestation’s contributions to climate mitigation, biodiversity enhancement, and rural development